However, have we now reached the limits of democracy as an effective method for human and ecological governance? The term-limited electoral horizons of politicians do not acknowledge the long time horizons of environmental thresholds. Hashima Island in Nagasaki Prefecture, abandoned in 1974 We are now locked into a zero-sum game whereby the geographical expansion of marketisation generates massive increases in the scale of production and consumption – China is ten times the size of Japan – and, of course, its corollary of increased environmental damage. Yet all around we see the elites of the Asian political economy calling for deregulation to facilitate more efficient markets and unleash even faster economic growth. We need strategic intervention by governments in the form of regulations to ‘nudge’ and sometimes even coerce individuals, communities and organisations to behave differently. The message from Japan is that we don’t have enough time to wait for market forces to spontaneously deliver a depopulation dividend. Population Change in Japan by Prefecture (left), and Change in Per-Capita Energy Consumption in Japan (right), 1990-2014, (blue: decrease, red: increase) There are good reasons why these are occurring, and knowing what these are helps point towards possible solutions. And biodiversity bounce back is not happening to the extent previously hoped for in areas where human populations are withdrawing. So, how is Japan doing so far? Well, a spontaneous depopulation dividend is not happening in Japan – yet! With respect to the biggest problem – carbon output from fossil fuel consumption – so far the biggest per capita consumption reductions are being achieved in regions with the most rapidly growing populations. Social benefits could encompass a more comfortable living space, improvements in workplace opportunities, less crime, and perhaps fewer wars. Environmental dividends might include reductions in resource consumption, ecosystem and biodiversity restoration, and reduced pollution. ![]() ![]() ![]() Could Japan lead Asia into achieving a ‘Depopulation Dividend’?īut first, what do I mean by a ‘Depopulation Dividend’? At its simplest it is the achievement from peaceful and non-coercive human depopulation of positive gains that contribute to socio-cultural, political-economic, and environmentally sustainable living. Asia is therefore where the ‘problem’ of population is most acute, and where the solutions are consequently most urgent. Japan’s story is significant because China, South Korea, and others in Asia are following a similar economic and demographic trajectory through growth and into shrinkage. Japan is a good place to start finding out, as more than half of its territorial area has been depopulating since 1990 and there is abundant longitudinal data available. Yet their assumptions regarding its environmentally restorative effects remain largely untested. Malthusian and deep ecology perspectives posit that depopulation is a necessary good. With a rising China, how might Japan continue to lead in the 21 st century? Actual and projected population change in selected Asian countries, 1950-2100 (in millions) (Source: UN WPP 2017) With the world’s 10 th largest population and advanced technical capabilities, in the 20 th century it was all too successful in using its demographic dividend to win humankind’s defensive ‘war against nature’ by becoming the world’s second largest economy and leading the rest of Asia towards successful development. Humanity is facing a grave crisis – and Japan is at its centre. ![]() Indeed, ‘at all costs’, because anthropogenic environmental pressures are now entering a catastrophic phase, with runaway climate change, massive biodiversity losses, and pollutants causing permanent changes to the biochemistry of life. More children would increase age-related dependency ratios, and the number of migrants required for population stability is beyond the country’s capacity to absorb.Ĭonventional approaches rest on the assumption that growth is an unarguable good, and should be maintained at all costs. Conventionally this is considered to be a ‘problem’ to be solved by increasing either fertility or immigration, or both. Japan is experiencing unprecedented demographic change, due to rapid ageing and, since 2008, decreasing population.
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